Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 4.049102 4.416404 4.823488 5.312496 5.889985 6.558133 7.401663
2025-01-26 3.601608 4.090206 4.671490 5.429488 6.416872 7.699117 9.565744
2025-02-02 3.382936 3.954482 4.670783 5.666320 7.072982 9.099469 12.500458
2025-02-09 3.192951 3.813448 4.622429 5.804988 7.593404 10.421229 15.888214
2025-02-16 2.974963 3.605334 4.449884 5.729621 7.765217 11.228939 18.798643
2025-02-23 2.804241 3.440630 4.313338 5.678082 7.950624 12.097997 22.398416
2025-03-02 2.656918 3.293540 4.183840 5.614309 8.094918 12.926234 26.593807
2025-03-09 2.530447 3.164780 4.067177 5.552419 8.225296 13.764830 31.732340
2025-03-16 2.432619 3.068953 3.989555 5.541739 8.443627 14.873464 39.435379
2025-03-23 2.372295 3.022246 3.980686 5.642395 8.893415 16.727514 54.647807
2025-03-30 2.268644 2.905313 3.853857 5.523650 8.874589 17.356675 65.537597
2025-04-06 2.174303 2.797118 3.733359 5.403737 8.832982 17.917461 78.859839
2025-04-13 2.066804 2.665915 3.571291 5.199539 8.588449 17.822343 87.232831
2025-04-20 2.031616 2.641967 3.579440 5.307813 9.065245 20.303802 154.342442
2025-04-27 2.021374 2.654855 3.647470 5.535359 9.878191 24.682971 563.419444
2025-05-04 1.993786 2.638980 3.665956 5.668658 10.497632 29.038408 NaN
2025-05-11 1.933048 2.568004 3.586290 5.596200 10.556920 30.838411 NaN
2025-05-18 1.880245 2.507327 3.520813 5.546637 10.671886 33.141299 NaN
2025-05-25 1.829003 2.447040 3.452689 5.485294 10.742844 35.353597 NaN
2025-06-01 1.781211 2.390442 3.388075 5.425746 10.809556 37.726957 NaN
2025-06-08 1.743735 2.349044 3.348066 5.415468 11.027070 41.671702 NaN
2025-06-15 1.723998 2.335565 3.356798 5.512312 11.611835 50.241577 NaN
2025-06-22 1.675430 2.273087 3.274141 5.398059 11.475557 51.636111 NaN